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[pasfx]

2014.03.27 :Forex News: Price confined between support and resistance. A breakout is imminent

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s release of the US Durable Goods Orders didn’t do much to affect the pair although the indicator posted much better than anticipated numbers. However, the US Dollar strengthened throughout the day but price action was characterized by some sharp turns on the lower time frames.

Technical Outlook
After price tried a second time to break the resistance located at 1.3830 but failed, the bears seem to be taking back control of the pair. If this is the case, we will probably see a break of the support located at 1.3760 and a continued move lower, towards 1.3710. For the moment, 1.3830 is still strong resistance but a break would be indicative of a shift of bias and a potential resumption of the long term uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook
At 12:30 pm GMT the US Unemployment Claims are released, with an anticipated increase from last week’s 320K to 326K, a fact which would probably weaken the US Dollar because a higher number of unemployed people, suggests that consumer spending may decrease in the near future. The US Pending Home Sales are announced at 2:00 pm GMT with no change anticipated from the current 0.1%; better than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the greenback as home purchases are usually made during times of economic expansion.

GBP/USD

The pair moved on a bullish path for the entire day and price came close to 1.6600 resistance. The bullish sentiment was triggered by speculation that Bank of England may raise the interest rate if the economy continues to recover.

Technical Outlook
An encounter with 1.6600 resistance seems almost imminent but if it occurs we expect a bounce lower. Since the beginning of the month the pair has been moving in a bearish manner and the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is close to overbought territory so moves lower after a touch of resistance have a higher probability. A break to the up side of 1.6600 would make 1.6650 the next target.

Fundamental Outlook
The most important event of the day for the pair will be the release of the UK Retail Sales which is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. Analysts’ forecast a rise from the previous -1.5% to 0.5%, a fact which would strengthen the Pound because retail sales represent the majority of consumer spending. US unemployment and house-market data will have a direct impact on the pair.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

2014.03.31 :Forex News: A busy Monday – speeches and inflation data ahead

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s release of the German Consumer Price Index didn’t have the usual impact on price direction and the pair moved up although the CPI value was worse than anticipated. This is partly attributed to the fact that some market participants were anticipating an even lower value than the actual one.

Technical Outlook
After an almost perfect bounce off 1.3710, price moved to touch 1.3760 resistance but the bulls couldn’t continue the momentum and the pair finished the week trading between the two levels. On the Hourly chart above, the pair is in a down trend, a fact which favors moves south but keep in mind that on higher time frames an uptrend is established. This makes the picture somewhat unclear and we believe that today’s direction will be mostly influenced by the fundamental aspect.

Fundamental Outlook
The Euro Zone Core Consumer Price Index is released today at 9:00 am GMT and a lower value is expected: 0.8% (previous is 1.0%). The CPI is widely regarded as the prime inflation gauge and the Core version excludes energy and food from calculation, thus giving a more accurate assessment of current conditions. Usually, higher than anticipated values strengthen the Euro and drive the pair higher.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak today in Chicago at the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference. The event is scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and can trigger strong movement although the currency market is not the main subject of her speech.

GBP/USD

The British Gross Domestic Product released Friday posted the anticipated value and as a result the market didn’t react strongly. However, the pair slowly climbed for almost the entire day and the week finished near resistance.

Technical Outlook
Friday’s rally took the pair in close vicinity of 1.6650 resistance for the second time in a short while. The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is indicating an overbought condition so further moves up will encounter increased resistance but this overbought state of the market is not a clear indication of bearish moves as oscillators can remain above the overbought level for an extended time. The main levels to watch today are 1.6650 as resistance and 1.6600 as support.

Fundamental Outlook
At 8:30 am GMT the Bank of England will announce the value of the Net Lending to Individuals. Although it is not considered a high-impact indicator, higher values usually strengthen the Pound because they suggest that consumers are confident in economic conditions and are willing to spend more money. The consensus value is 2.3B while previous was 2.1B.

At 5:15 pm GMT Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England will speak at a press conference in London. As always, his public speeches can turn into market movers if the monetary policy topic is touched.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

EUR/USD

Forex News: Intraday trading was made difficult yesterday by the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which generated a massive whipsaw. The lower-than-expected value posted by the indicator initially took price lower but soon after the pair rallied above resistance.

Technical Outlook

After the touch of 1.3710 which occurred last week, the bears seemed to have lost their control over the pair and at the moment the bulls dictate direction, despite disappointing data for the Euro. The level of 1.3760 was broken to the upside and now price returned close to it for a re-test; we anticipate a move higher, possibly close to the resistance located at 1.3830 but a lot depends on the fundamental data released today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 7:15 am GMT the Spanish Manufacturing PMI is released, with an anticipated increase from 52.5 to 52.9; half an hour later the same indicator but for the Italian economy is released and expected to slightly decrease from 52.3 to 52.2. Both these indicators are surveys based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Manufacturing sector and have the potential to strengthen the Euro if better numbers are posted. Later in the day, at 2:00 pm GMT the US Manufacturing PMI comes out, with an estimated increase from the previous 53.2 to 54.2. Similar to the other two indicators, higher values usually strengthen the currency.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued its climb yesterday and broke the resistance level located at 1.6650 on the back of speculation that Bank of England may raise the interest rate if the economy keeps improving.

Technical Outlook

Although the latest movement favors the bulls, the Relative Strength Index has been hovering above the 70 level for a few days and a move lower is probable. The first barrier for this potential move lower is located at 1.6650, followed by 1.6600, while 1.6750 is the main resistance in front of rising prices, although we don’t anticipate such a strong rally unless surprising numbers are posted for today’s economic indicators.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Manufacturing PMI scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and estimated to slightly decrease from 56.9 to 56.7. The indicator is based on the opinions of about 600 purchasing managers and usually strengthens the Pound if it posts better than anticipated numbers. US data will also affect the pair’s behavior.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan
The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.
Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: ADP NON FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA LIKELY TO PUT AN END TO MARKET INDECISION


EUR/USD

Forex News: The Manufacturing PMIs released yesterday didn’t have a huge impact on the pair, mostly because their value was close to the anticipated one and as a result, price moved in a narrow, 50 pip range.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday price traveled north, towards the resistance located at 1.3830 but the day was slow, as mentioned before. The four hour candles show long wicks at their upper side, a fact which indicates rejection and a potential move lower but the Relative Strength Index didn’t reach an overbought condition so the bullish move might continue until 1.3830 is reached. To the down side, 1.3760 remains support, followed by 1.3710.

Fundamental Outlook

The Euro has a calm day ahead in terms of economic releases and the most important data of the day comes from the United States in the form of the ADP Non Farm Employment Change. This report is released by a privately owned company (Automatic Data Processing Inc.) and shows changes in the number of employed persons during the previous month. Today’s indicator is less important than the Government issued data which comes out Friday but a higher value is regarded as beneficial for the US economy and has the potential to bring the pair lower. The time of the release is 12:15 pm GMT and the expected number is 192K, a hefty increase from the previous 139K.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations and this weakened the Pound throughout the day, allowing the pair to move lower and to break the minor support located at 1.6650.

​

Technical Outlook

For a few days the Relative Strength Index was showing an overbought condition and yesterday the pair retraced lower, partially helped by this state of the indicator. However, lately the pair was controlled by the bulls and yesterday’s move might be just a retracement, especially if price will quickly move above 1.6650. Important support sits at 1.6600 and a move below it would put the bears in short term control of the pair.
Fundamental Outlook
The British Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index is scheduled for release today at 8:30 am GMT, with an anticipated increase from 62.6 to 63.1. The construction sector is an important part of the British economy and higher than anticipated values are considered beneficial for the Pound. The US release mentioned earlier will also have a direct impact on the pair’s movement.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan
The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.
Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: A CRUCIAL DAY FOR THE EURO – ECB INTEREST RATE AND PRESS CONFERENCE AHEAD​

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved lower yesterday after the ADP Non Farm Employment report posted a reading of 191K, very close to the anticipated 192K. Although the number wasn’t better than anticipated, it was still a hefty increase from the previous value and the US dollar strengthened as a result.

Technical Outlook

The drop seen yesterday is a sign that bears are trying to take back control of the pair but the support located at 1.3760 couldn’t be broken, despite the strength exhibited by the greenback. If this support level is not broken quickly and price stalls or even bounces higher, it could be a sign that Euro still has underlying strength and that moves higher could follow. We have a very important day ahead as the ECB announces the Rate decision and S/R levels will probably be broken but the direction depends mainly on what ECB President Mario Draghi will say during the Press Conference.

Fundamental Outlook

The ECB will announce the Euro Zone Interest Rate today at 11:45 am GMT (no change expected from the current 0.25%) but the main event of the day is the Press Conference which follows at 12:30 pm GMT. During this press conference, Mario Draghi will read a prepared statement and then he will answer journalists’ questions; this second part of the conference is usually the one that creates the strongest moves as traders try to interpret his attitude and find hints about the Euro’s next direction.
GBP/USD
United Kingdom’s construction PMI released yesterday posted a lower than anticipated value, generating a weakening of the Pound. Good US employment data strengthened the US Dollar but although all ingredients were present for a major drop, this did not occur and the pair had slow movement.

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below 1.6650 but the overall movement is sideways and neither bulls nor bears are in clear control. The Relative Strength Index doesn’t show an extreme condition of the market so it doesn’t offer many clues regarding the next move and at the moment our bias is neutral on the pair, expecting a strong move in either direction. The main levels are 1.6600 as support, and 1.6750 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

AT 8:30 am GMT the British Services PMI is released, but no change is expected from the current 58.2. A higher reading is regarded as beneficial for the Pound as the survey based on the opinions of purchasing managers from the Services sector and acts as an indicator of economic health.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan
The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.
Source of article from the best forex broker.

 

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[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US NON FARM EMPLOYMENT REPORT – A HIGHLY ANTICIPATED MARKET MOVER
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EUR/USD


Forex News: The ECB Interest Rate remained unchanged as expected but Mario Draghi’s comments about “unconventional” measures against deflation were perceived as bearish for the Euro and took the pair into major support.

​

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s move puts the bears back in control of the pair, but an important barrier sits in front of falling prices: the support level located at 1.3710. If this support will be broken today, the next medium term target is 1.3550 but for the moment the Relative Strength Index is approaching oversold territory and support is still intact so retracements higher are possible. Today is an important day as US employment data is released and will probably overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the US Non Farm Employment report is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the expected figure is 199k, an increase from the previous 175K. Rising levels of employment are crucial for the American economy and suggest that consumer spending is likely to increase in the near future, a fact considered bullish by market participants. Almost always this indicator is a huge market mover and has a major impact on price action so we recommend caution if trading at the time.

GBP/USD

Throughout yesterday’s trading session the pair had a bearish behavior, moving south of 1.6600 support on the back of a worse than anticipated value of the British Services PMI.

Technical Outlook

The current momentum is bearish and price broke 1.6600 to the down side once again. Under normal circumstances, this move could be easily continued during today’s trading session but the release of the US employment report will be the main event of the day and will probably dictate direction. The most important levels to watch are 1.6600 as resistance and 1.6480 as support.
Fundamental Outlook
We have a slow day ahead in terms of British economic data and all focus will be on the US Non Farm Employment Change which has the potential to strengthen or weaken the greenback considerably, thus affecting the pair directly.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: PREPARING FOR A SLOW MONDAY, WHICH LACKS MAJOR ECONOMIC RELEASES​

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Employment data which came out Friday showed that fewer people were employed during the previous month but the number was close to estimates so the market did not travel a substantial distance in either direction.

​

Technical Outlook

Although the pair moved below the important level of 1.3710, we consider that moves above it are still a distinct possibility. This is based on the fact that the break wasn’t a clear, decisive one and the Relative Strength Index is indicating an oversold condition, which makes moves higher more probable. If price will indeed move north, 1.3760 will act as resistance but keep in mind that the latest momentum favors the bears so moves lower are not out of the question. We may also experience a slow trading day because the fundamental scene lacks major economic releases.

Fundamental Outlook

The German Industrial Production indicator is released at 6:00 am GMT with an anticipated decrease from the previous 0.8% to 0.3%. The indicator measures the total output of German industries and higher numbers are perceived as bullish for the Euro, considering the fact that Germany’s economy is an important part of the entire Euro Zone economy. However, the indicator is considered to have a medium-impact on the pair’s movement.

GBP/USD

Friday was a day with a lot of choppy movement, which was very difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames. This was mostly due to the US Non Farm Employment report that posted a reading close to the anticipated value.

​

Technical Outlook

The pair is trading below the level of 1.6600 and the Relative Strength Index is not showing signs of an oversold market. This makes us believe that lower moves will follow, but before that can happen, price will probably touch 1.6600 again. First support is located at 1.6480 but such a distance is less likely to be traveled today; resistance is located at 1.6600, followed by 1.6650.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s trading session lacks British data releases, a fact which may bring us slow and potentially ranging price action.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: POUND HIGHLY AFFECTED BY TWO IMPORTANT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

EUR/USD

Forex News: For almost the entire duration of yesterday’s trading session the bulls were in control of the pair’s movement and managed to take price above 1.3710. The German Industrial Production indicator posted a reading close to estimates and didn’t affect price action substantially.

Technical Outlook

The oversold condition signaled previously by the Relative Strength Index helped the bulls to take price above 1.3710 yesterday and for today’s trading session we anticipate a touch of 1.3760 followed by a move lower, possibly into 1.3700 zone again. If the RSI becomes overbought in the mean time, chances of a drop will increase.

Fundamental Outlook

The US Job Openings will be released today at 2:00 pm GMT, with an anticipated increase from the previous 3.97M to 3.99M. This is not a high impact indicator but it is focused on the jobs sector which is always important for the US economy and usually better than expected numbers strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair experienced a bullish trading session yesterday and moved above major resistance once again. Although price moved in a single direction for almost the entire day, the distance traveled was not huge and overall, trading was calm.

Technical Outlook

For today’s trading session we anticipate a move lower, below 1.6600 but before that happens, a touch of 1.6650 resistance is a strong possibility. Neither bulls nor bears are in clear control of the pair but a decisive move below 1.6600 will make 1.6480 the next lower target. The United Kingdom has a busy day ahead in terms of economic releases so the technical aspect will be secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

UK’s Manufacturing Production will be released today at 8:30 am GMT; the forecast is a slight decrease from the previous 0.4% to 0.3%, a fact which would weaken the Pound since the manufacturing sector is of major importance to the British economy and makes up for about 80% of the entire Industrial production. The second important release of the day is the NIESR estimate of the British Gross Domestic Product, which comes out at 2:00 pm GMT. The estimated figure is 0.8% and higher values will probably take the pair north, on the back of Pound strength.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES – THE DECIDING FACTOR OF THE DAY


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the US Dollar exhibited weakness against most of its counterparts and this allowed the Euro to take the pair higher, above the resistance located at 1.3760. Throughout the day the bulls showed almost complete control of the pair.

Technical Outlook

Although the bulls are in control of short term movement, the Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart has moved above the level of 70, a fact which indicates an overbought market. This implies that retracements lower might occur today, especially if the pair touches 1.3830. The level of 1.3760 will probably become support and has the ability to reject price higher.

Fundamental Outlook

An important US event is scheduled today at 6:00 pm GMT: the FOMC Meeting Minutes which contain details about the latest Fed Meeting and the reasons that influenced the votes regarding the Federal Funds Rate. Hints about future monetary decisions may also be present, a fact which highly influences the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The British Manufacturing Production surprisingly increased from the anticipated 0.3% to 1.0% and the Pound strengthened substantially as a result. The entire day was controlled by the bulls and resistance levels were broken with ease.

​

Technical Outlook

Considering the latest strength showed by the Pound, we anticipate a move above 1.6750 resistance but before that can happen, a bearish retracement is expected. The Relative Strength Index is deep in overbought territory, a fact which adds to our belief that a move lower will occur before other advances will take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the British Trade Balance which tracks the difference between imported and exported goods. Although it is considered a medium impact indicator, surprising numbers can move the pair significantly. The release is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and the anticipated number is -9.3B, an increase from the previous -9.8B. Of course, the FOMC Meeting Minutes will have a direct impact on price direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: OVERBOUGHT MARKETS CALL FOR A RETRACEMENT
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EUR/USD

Forex News: During yesterday’s trading session, the pair touched 1.3830 and US Dollar weakness generated by the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes pushed price even higher. The Minutes showed that speculation of an early rate increase might be wrong, a fact which triggered the mentioned greenback weakness.

​

Technical Outlook

The market is controlled by the bulls and moves higher are anticipated. However, the Relative Strength Index is showing a severe overbought condition and this makes a move lower highly probable. The first level of interest to the down side is 1.3830 and if price will touch it, bullish movement is likely to resume.
Fundamental Outlook
The European Central Bank will release at 8:00 am GMT the Monthly Bulletin which contains information regarding the financial and economic data which was taken into consideration when the ECB decided at what level to set the interest rate. The Bulletin will also contain the Bank’s view on the current and future economic situation.
Some volatility may also be triggered by the G20 Meetings which take place today in Washington DC. One of the main subjects will be the Russia – Ukraine crisis, a topic which created strong movement in the past.

GBP/USD

The pair had slow movement ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, but it started to pick up speed once the Minutes were released and price moved comfortably above 1.6750 resistance.

​

Technical Outlook

The clear break of 1.6750 opens the door for a touch and even a break of the year’s high located at 1.6822. Even if the momentum belongs to the bulls and the US Dollar shows clear signs of weakness, a dip lower is expected because the pair moved almost 250 pips without a retracement. Adding to this is the overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index so we expect a move into 1.6750 before price continues higher to touch 1.6822.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will release today at 11:00 am GMT the interest rate which is not expected to change from the current 0.50% but almost always volatility accompanies this event. The Asset Purchase Facility will be announced at the same time; no change is expected (currently the value is 375 billion Pounds) but a higher value usually weakens the Pound while a lower one is considered bullish. If the Rate or the Asset Purchase Facility is modified in any way, an official statement will be released by the Bank of England, explaining the reasons which determined this decision.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: CAN THE BULLS FINISH THE WEEK IN TOTAL CONTROL?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was characterized by a very small retracement lower followed by a move higher and a continuation of the previous bullish momentum. The Monthly Bulletin released by the ECB did not generate sharp moves, mainly because it didn’t show any surprising data.

Technical Outlook

Even if the bulls’ strength is obvious, we expect a stronger retracement to the down side, considering the severely overbought condition of the Relative Strength Index. This retracement will most likely find support at 1.3830 where a bounce higher has a high probability of occurring. To the up side, the first major resistance level is located at 1.3965.

Fundamental Outlook

The first event of the day is the release of the German Consumer Price Index which is estimated to decrease from 1.2% to 1.0%. Inflation highly influences the ECB decision regarding future interest rates and higher than anticipated values have the ability to strengthen the Euro. The release is scheduled at 6:00 am GMT.
Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the United States will announce the Producer Price Index which is expected to change from -0.1% to 0.1%, a fact which would strengthen the US Dollar. The economic week finishes with the release of the US Consumer Confidence, scheduled at 1:55 pm GMT and anticipated to increase from the previous 80.0 to 81.2. Confidence among consumers is highly correlated with consumer spending so better numbers for today’s release will most likely strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Interest Rate remained unchanged at 0.50%, a fact which was anticipated by market participants and didn’t generate a lot of volatility. However, the pair moved lower during the day and almost touched the support located at 1.6750.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s retracement didn’t manage to bring the Relative Strength Index below the 70 level so the market is still considered overbought, a fact which favors moves south. If such moves will occur today, the level of 1.6750 will act as good support and will probably push price higher, for another attempt to break 1.6822 resistance. The bulls are clearly in control of the pair so moves higher can occur without retracements lower.
Fundamental Outlook
The Pound has a calm day ahead in terms of economic news releases so the pair will be influenced by the US indicators mentioned earlier and by technical factors.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: US RETAIL SALES GENERATE STRONG MOVES

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday was a slow day for the pair and the US Dollar struggled to drive the pair down but didn’t succeed although better than anticipated economic data was released by the United States.

Technical Outlook

On a four hour chart we can notice the fact that the Relative Strength Index started to move down, out of the overbought territory where it stayed for most of last week. This is indicative of a potential retracement lower, which will most likely touch 1.3830 support. Of course, price can continue to move north today as well, because indicators can signal an overbought condition for extended periods of time; if this is the case resistance will be provided by the level of 1.3965.

Fundamental Outlook

Euro Zone’s Industrial Production is released today at 9:00 am, with an estimated increase from the previous -0.2% to 0.3%. Higher than anticipated numbers usually strengthen the Euro but the indicator doesn’t have a high impact on the market. The main event of the day is the release of the US Retail Sales scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT. Retail sales are crucial for the overall state of the economy and higher values are considered bullish for the greenback; today’s forecast is an increase from the previous 0.3% to 0.8%.

GBP/USD

The pair retraced lower Friday and this move was generated by the positive US data we mentioned earlier; however, this doesn’t change the fact that bulls are in control of the pair’s direction.

Technical Outlook

As we mentioned in our Weekly analysis, the pair printed a double top at 1.6820, which is a bearish chart pattern. We anticipate another move up, into this resistance zone and we believe that if price indeed moves there, it will offer hints about future direction: a bounce would indicate that bears are stepping in and a stronger retracement lower is in order, while a break will most likely bring more buyers in the market. Today’s important levels are 1.6750 and 1.6680 as potential support.

Fundamental Outlook

Price action will be mostly influenced by the US Retail Sales and by technical factors as the United Kingdom doesn’t release any high-impact economic data.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

2014.04.15 :Retracements complete. Can the bulls resume the uptrend?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The release of the American Retail Sales didn’t create the expected strong movement but the week opened with a gap down which was mostly due to dovish comments made by Mario Draghi during the weekend.

Technical Outlook
During yesterday’s trading session the pair moved below the level located at 1.3830 but today we expect a move back up above this level and possibly an uptrend resumption. For the time being, Monday’s move lower is just a retracement and also a good place for more buyers to join the uptrend so our bias is bullish. A move below 1.3760 would severely weaken this uptrend and would put the bears in control.

Fundamental Outlook
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment will be the day’s main release for the Euro. Scheduled at 9:00 am GMT, the indicator is expected to decrease to a value of 45 from the previous 46.6, a fact which would most likely weaken the Euro and drive the pair lower. The US Consumer Price Index which is one of the main gauges of inflation will be released later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT. The forecast is an increase to 1.4% from 1.1% and if it comes true, we will most likely see US Dollar strength and moves lower for the pair.

GBP/USD

Yesterday’s trading session was rather slow, with the pair moving south during the first part of the day and climbing during the second. The pair had a high-to-low range of less than 50 pips and no special developments took place.

Technical Outlook
We anticipate an increase in traveled distance and stronger moves today. The bulls still have underlying strength so they are likely to take price above 1.6750, in an attempt to break the double top formed at 1.6822/20. To the down side, the first level of interest remains 1.6680 and a move below it would open the door for another break of 1.6600 support.

Fundamental Outlook
The main Pound-affecting event today is the release of United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT. The CPI is closely watched by the Bank of England when the Interest Rate decision is made, hence the importance of this indicator. Higher than expected values usually strengthen the Pound and take the pair higher. Also, the pair’s direction will be affected by the release of the US Consumer Price Index.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

The article above is based on the writer’s 5-year experience and it does not constitute trading advice or investment recommendations, just a personal opinion and view of the market.

Source of article from the best forex broker.

Skype : gdmfxindonesia
Indonesia Email Support: indo.support@gdmfx.com​

 

[pasfx]

Forex News: Bullish pressure heightens. Resistance levels tested again​

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the German ZEW survey showed a disappointing value while the US Consumer Price Index came out better than expected but the pair was difficult to trade, especially on the lower time frames; growing tensions in Ukraine also contributed to this choppy price action.

Technical Outlook

Although during the second part of yesterday’s session the Euro gained against the US Dollar, the level of 1.3830 couldn’t be broken to the up side, a fact which shows that indecision is present in the market. If the uptrend will resume, today we will probably see a break of the mentioned level; otherwise the support located at 1.3760 will become the first target and the uptrend will be severely weakened.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s most important event is the release of the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index which is scheduled at 9:00 am GMT. The current value is 0.5% and no change is expected but the CPI is the main gauge of inflation so the ECB closely watches it when the Interest Rate decision is made and higher values usually strengthen the Euro. Later in the day, at 12:30 pm GMT the US Building Permits are released, offering insights into the American house market; the expected value is 1.00M, a small decrease from the previous 1.01M and under normal circumstances, higher numbers strengthen the greenback.

GBP/USD

United Kingdom’s Consumer Price Index decreased to 1.6%, as anticipated but a huge whipsaw was seen once the number was released and price moved higher after an initial drop.

Technical Outlook

The bullish momentum seems to fade away and no major advances were made after the double top formed at 1.6822. If price doesn’t cross soon the barrier located at 1.6750, the bears might step in to take control of the pair so for today the main levels to watch are 1.6750 as resistance and 1.6680 as support; the break of either level can trigger a continued move in that direction.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Claimant Count Change will be released; the estimated number is -30.2K, an increase compared to last month’s -34.6K and usually, higher levels of unemployment are detrimental for the Pound because jobless people spend less than people who are employed and consumer spending is crucial for the economy. The data released by the United States will directly affect the pair’s direction throughout the day.


Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: LAST ECONOMIC RELEASES BEFORE THE EASTER HOLIDAYS​

EUR/USD

Forex News: Euro Zone’s Consumer Price Index came out as expected, with a value of 0.5% and the US Building Permits didn’t post a surprise either. As a result, the pair lacked clear direction yesterday and price moved above and below 1.3830.

Technical Outlook

The bulls tried to take the pair above 1.3830 but the move was almost immediately reversed, a fact which shows underlying bear strength. However, once price moved below 1.3830, it just remained there and no strong moves occurred. This indicates that indecision is present in the market and almost anything can happen until a clear move is made by either bulls or bears. Our bias is neutral at the moment, in anticipation of a clear display of power from either side. The levels to watch are 1.3900 as resistance and 1.3760 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s most important events come from the US today: the Unemployment Claims are released at 12:30 pm GMT and anticipated to increase to 316K from last week’s 300K. A higher level of unemployment is detrimental to the US economy and to the US Dollar but the impact of the indicator is not consistent, mostly because it is released every week. The second economic release is the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index which is a leading indicator of economic health focused on manufacturing performance in the Philadelphia district. Higher numbers than today’s anticipated 9.6 usually strengthen the greenback, driving the pair lower.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound scored another victory versus the US Dollar on the back of a better than expected value of Unemployment Rate. As a result, the pair broke 1.6750 resistance and touched 1.6820 again.

Technical Outlook

Price touched the resistance zone formed around 1.6820 for the third time, creating a Triple Top, which is a bearish pattern and is usually seen at the end of an uptrend. This is a major sign that moves south will follow if this triple top cannot be broken soon. The first level that can offer support is 1.6750 but we might also experience a ranging day because no major news releases are scheduled for the Pound.

Fundamental Outlook

Market participants will shift their attention towards the US for the releases mentioned above since the United Kingdom didn’t schedule any news for today. The approaching of the Easter holidays may generate irregular movement and possibly increased volatility.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MAJOR BANKS ARE CLOSED, GENERATING IRREGULAR PRICE ACTION

EUR/USD

Forex News: The Euro bulls controlled the beginning of yesterday’s trading session and took the pair above 1.3830 but price soon dropped below this level and overall trading lacked clear direction.

Technical Outlook

The pair will most likely have a behavior which will be difficult to trade due to the fact that major banks around the world will be closed in celebration of Good Friday; this will generate low liquidity and sudden surges of volatility. Moves back above 1.3830 are a distinct possibility but moves lower are not out of the question either and that’s why we recommend caution if trading today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there will be no data releases as most banks and brokerages are closed in observance of Good Friday.

GBP/USD

Yesterday we saw a break of the major resistance located at 1.6820 but the bears took control of the pair as soon as positive US data was released, taking price back below resistance.

Technical Outlook

Similar to the EUR/USD and probably to all pairs, the Cable will have a low-volume trading session which will be characterized by abnormal volatility and movement. Caution is recommended and potential breakouts shouldn’t be considered valid until volatility is back to normal.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any financial indicator releases today and the same is true for the United States.
We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you Happy Easter!

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MARKETS TAKE A BREAK FOR EASTER​

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday price moved in a range of about 15 pips which was almost impossible to trade. This behavior was triggered by the fact that many brokerages and banks were closed, celebrating Good Friday.

Technical Outlook

Today no movement is anticipated because banks and brokerages around the world are closed due to Easter Holidays. The market takes a break and once trading resumes, 1.3830 is the first level to watch for a bounce or break scenario.

Fundamental Outlook

Due to Easter Monday, no important economic or financial indicators are released today.

GBP/USD

The pair also moved sideways Friday as most traders took the day off and volume was extremely thin.

Technical Outlook

The day will lack movement and most markets around the world will be closed today. The important levels to watch once action resumes are 1.6820 and 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

The fundamental scene is quiet today, for the reasons mentioned above.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: VOLUME BACK TO NORMAL. THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO REVEAL ITS REAL DIRECTION​

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved slowly yesterday, but had a higher range than expected, considering that many banks around the world were closed, celebrating Easter. No economic indicators were released but the US Dollar took the pair lower.

Technical Outlook

We saw an almost perfect bounce lower once price touched 1.3830 resistance and price started to head towards 1.3760 support. However, this movement cannot be considered a clear sign that bears try to take control of price direction and it’s rather just a behavior generated by low volume. Today’s price action will offer better hints about the next medium term direction and the main levels to watch remain 1.3830 and 1.3760.

Fundamental Outlook

All major banks will be open today so volatility is returning to normal but only one important economic indicator is released: The US Existing Home Sales. The indicator shows the annualized number of homes sold during the previous month and better figures usually have a positive impact on the US Dollar. The time of the release is 2:00 pm GMT and the expected number is 4.57M, while the previous was 4.60M.

GBP/USD

Similar to the EUR/USD, the Cable bounced off resistance yesterday but the movement was slow and the pair moved in a tight range.

Technical Outlook

Now that Easter is behind us, we expect to see where the pair is really headed. The resistance located at 1.6820 rejected price as soon as it was touched and under normal circumstances we would anticipate a touch of 1.6750 or at least a clear move towards it. However, because the pair is in a long term uptrend, another move into 1.6820 or even above it is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

Today no economic data comes out of the United Kingdom and price action will be mostly influenced by technical factors and by the US release mentioned earlier.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan

 

[pasfx]

FOREX NEWS: MANUFACTURING PMIS AND BOE MEETING MINUTES RESTORE VOLATILITY​

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair continued to move without clear direction yesterday and the slightly better than anticipated value of the US Existing Home Sales didn’t trigger a sharp drop even if some US Dollar strength could be seen at the time of the release.

Technical Outlook

Although the picture is not clear and movement is rather ranging, we can notice some rejection off 1.3830 resistance, which is a sign that 1.3760 might be touched today. We slightly favor the down side but we acknowledge the fact that yesterday’s price action is not very conclusive. The Euro Zone will release 2 economic indicators today so the pair’s direction will be influenced by them, especially because the technical aspect is unclear.

Fundamental Outlook

France announces the Manufacturing PMI at 7:00 am GMT. Analysts expect a very small increase from 51.8 to 51.9 and higher values usually strengthen the Euro since the indicator acts as a gauge of optimism among purchasing managers who activate in the Manufacturing sector. At 7:30 am GMT, the German Manufacturing PMI is released and expected to increase from 53.7 to 53.9.

The US New Home Sales numbers come out at 2:00 pm GMT, with an increase anticipated: 455K from the previous 440K. A higher number than forecast could take the pair lower on the back of greenback strength.

GBP/USD

Slowly but surely the Pound climbed above the major resistance located at 1.6820 and the better than expected value of the US Existing Home Sales couldn’t generate enough downward momentum to bring price below the mentioned level.

Technical Outlook

The Relative Strength Index on a four hour chart is approaching the level of 70 which indicates an overbought condition of the market; although this is not a sign of clear reversal on its own, it makes further advancements more difficult. We favor a move below 1.6820 unless the bulls can show a quick and clear proof of strength (clear move above the mentioned level). The first support level is located at 1.6750.

Fundamental Outlook

At 8:30 am GMT the Minutes of the latest Bank of England Meeting are released. The document will outline the reasons which stood behind the Interest Rate decision and will contain the breakdown of the members’ votes. The Minutes also allow traders to see how many members are changing their stance regarding the value of the interest rate, thus offering clues about future rate direction.

Written by: Bogdan Giulvezan